Polymarket Trader

5038813185

0x453ae5e896ea243f332ed97c1c77bf2888ce81d2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $29.83K
Realized PnL: $4.67K
Win rate: 50%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 26.2%
Current value: $20.14K
Potential payout: $77K
Potential profit: $56.86K
Multiplier: 3.82x
User PnL: $16.82K

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $441.47
Potential payout: $36.79K
Potential profit: $36.35K
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$2.73K

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.1K
Potential profit: $16.1K
User PnL: -$240.08

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $59.41
Potential payout: $13.2K
Potential profit: $13.14K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $19.8

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $313.06
Potential payout: $12.52K
Potential profit: $12.21K
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: -$1.4K

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $1.09K
Potential payout: $8.75K
Potential profit: $7.65K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$30.82

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 45.6%
Current value: $3.13K
Potential payout: $6.87K
Potential profit: $3.74K
Multiplier: 2.19x
User PnL: $80.32

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $1.55K
Potential payout: $5.85K
Potential profit: $4.3K
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$204.52

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $50 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $144.62
Potential payout: $4.09K
Potential profit: $3.94K
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$468.73

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $717.5
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $2.78K
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $73.5

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $667.01
Potential payout: $2.52K
Potential profit: $1.85K
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$4.21

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $1.49K
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$1.5

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $855.18
Potential profit: $855.18
User PnL: -$42.76

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $405
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $95
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $345

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $15.6
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $284.4
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: -$27

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.42
Potential profit: $102.42
User PnL: -$7.73

Yes position

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $48.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $51.5
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $84.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $15.5
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.78
Potential profit: $40.78
User PnL: -$4.51

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $6.3
Potential payout: $7.5
Potential profit: $1.2
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $7
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.5
Potential profit: $5.5
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.33
Potential profit: $5.33
User PnL: -$1.33

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83K

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $1.48K

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 20.1%
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: $1.09K

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $609.84

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $152.5

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.96

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.99

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 27.8%
Multiplier: 3.60x
User PnL: $102.17

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $18.8

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.97

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.44

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Multiplier: 39.22x
User PnL: -$20.05

Yes position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$42.83

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Multiplier: 7.30x
User PnL: -$43.27

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$43.75

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$69.27

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$70.3

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$73.99

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$94

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$201.49

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$203.14

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 47.2% 282.98 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 45% 62.51 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 44.9% 55 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 27% 500 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 44.7% 300 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 44.7% 1,000 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 27% 2,500 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 44.4% 13 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 44.6% 2,000 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 44.5% 2,287.57 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 42.4% 220 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 41.8% 479.2 shares