Polymarket Trader

Smurfbay

0x454f740a8b32b19b0cd4f960d9620b09658df625

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $33.08
Realized PnL: $690.5
Win rate: 87.5%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Exact Score: Australia 3 - 1 Egypt?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $526.32
Potential profit: $526.32
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $30.33
Potential payout: $466.67
Potential profit: $436.33
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$39.67

Yes position

Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 England?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $222.22
Potential profit: $222.22
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Algeria?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Norway?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 England?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $153.85
Potential profit: $153.85
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Senegal?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95.24
Potential profit: $95.24
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $89.29
Potential profit: $89.29
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Morocco?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Ecuador?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Austria?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $47.62
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Exact Score: Any Other Score?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Any Other Score?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $2.74
Potential payout: $13.06
Potential profit: $10.31
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$6.53

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 13?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $329.52

Yes position

Exact Score: England 2 - 1 DR Congo?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.11

Yes position

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Norway?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.91

Yes position

Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.43

Yes position

Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.45

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.46

Yes position

Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-14?

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.03

Celtics position

Celtics vs. Kings

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.45

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20?

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.25

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.07

Yes position

$PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.67

No position

Will Solana hit $260 in December?

Ends Jan 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.14

Yes position

Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana?

Ends Dec 7, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45

Yes position

Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?

Ends Dec 6, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia?

Ends Dec 29, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.99

Yes position

No Ethereum all time high in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Keria (Ryu Min-seok) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Another monkeypox case in US in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

90k position

Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 England?

Yes 13% 153.85 shares
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance AND Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance AND United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance AND Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance AND Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

10% 96.96 shares
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance AND Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance AND United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance AND Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance AND Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

10% 194.7 shares
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia? AND Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Belgium? AND Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 England? AND Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Spain? AND Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Norway? AND Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Egypt?

1.7% 1,142.35 shares
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance AND Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance AND Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance AND United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance AND Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance AND Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

8.7% 224.71 shares
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance AND Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance AND Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance AND United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance AND Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance AND Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

8.2% 237.02 shares
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 England?

Yes 8% 250 shares
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Brazil vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Norway?

9% 108.11 shares
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Norway?

Yes 12% 166.67 shares
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France? AND Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Morocco? AND Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 England?

0.4% 2,425 shares
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance AND Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score

28.4% 34.41 shares
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance

41.9% 70.36 shares