Polymarket Trader

0x45a22737a76fAFD5Dd101EB0dC6030986eb13C01-1750068339195

0x45a22737a76fafd5dd101eb0dc6030986eb13c01

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $15.26K
Realized PnL: $34.08K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $9.21K
Potential payout: $9.53K
Potential profit: $319.21
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $53.6

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $295.08
Potential payout: $9.52K
Potential profit: $9.22K
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$59.42

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $13.93
Potential payout: $5.57K
Potential profit: $5.56K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$17.98

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $5.55K
Potential payout: $5.57K
Potential profit: $19.51
User PnL: $32.29

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.89K
Potential profit: $3.89K
User PnL: -$54.86

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.03K
User PnL: -$10.21

Yes position

Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $490.03
Potential profit: $490.03
User PnL: -$94.11

No position

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $25.64
Potential payout: $233.07
Potential profit: $207.43
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$4.15

Yes position

Trump meets with Putin by June 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $141.31
Potential profit: $140.11
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$4.12

No position

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $140.53
Potential payout: $141.31
Potential profit: $0.78
User PnL: $4.45

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.15
Potential profit: $27.15
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $4.13
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $20.88
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$6.13

Yes position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $20.18
Potential payout: $22.54
Potential profit: $2.37
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.91

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61K

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.17K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.98K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.29K

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: $1.78K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.73K

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.48K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.41K

Yes position

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41K

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.3K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $994.48

No position

Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $990.74

Yes position

Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $756.06

No position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $738.66

Yes position

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $631.43

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $604.75

Yes position

Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $600.13

Yes position

Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $580.56

No position

Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $360.36

No position

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $311.58

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $289.68

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $283.9

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $275

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

No 10% 8.94 shares
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Yes 88% 3.1 shares
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Yes 84% 5 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

No 96.4% 480.89 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

No 96.4% 10.01 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 3.6% 10.01 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

No 96.5% 19.98 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

No 96.4% 118.89 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

No 96.4% 605.56 shares
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

No 14% 0.05 shares
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Yes 85% 11.3 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

No 96.9% 130.22 shares