Polymarket Trader

onekey09

0x45b39e1f71e47fd4afe4b988ffad690b644735bc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $365.14K
Realized PnL: $156.77K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $184.53K
Potential payout: $203.9K
Potential profit: $19.37K
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $22.39K

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.2%
Current value: $71.34K
Potential payout: $76.59K
Potential profit: $5.25K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $114.88

No position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $67.14K
Potential payout: $67.65K
Potential profit: $507.37
User PnL: $2.7K

No position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $19.92K
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: $420

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18K
Potential profit: $18K
User PnL: -$17.56K

No position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $13.1K
Potential payout: $13.18K
Potential profit: $72.46
User PnL: $945.1

No position

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $3.43K
Potential payout: $3.45K
Potential profit: $25.89
User PnL: $184.76

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $2.93K
Potential payout: $2.95K
Potential profit: $22.13
User PnL: $154.87

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $390.59
Potential payout: $2.52K
Potential profit: $2.13K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$466.78

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $1.76K
Potential payout: $1.77K
Potential profit: $7.95
User PnL: $85.71

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $380.73
Potential payout: $404.39
Potential profit: $23.66
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $28.71

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $222.19
Potential payout: $235
Potential profit: $12.81
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $22.44

Yes position

Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $164.89
Potential profit: $164.89
User PnL: -$162.15

No position

Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$25.5

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.84
Potential profit: $30.84
User PnL: -$28.84

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.99K

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.74K

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $15.02K

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.72K

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.73K

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.38K

No position

US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.17K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.84K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.34K

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.17K

No position

Israel strikes Iran by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.47K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.18K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.44K

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.27K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.03K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.72K

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.62K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61K

No position

US strike on Mexico by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.56K

No position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.31K

No position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.31K

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

No 99.3% 1,307.36 shares
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

No 99.6% 3,465.84 shares
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

No 94.2% 893.08 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

No 99.1% 1,292 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

No 99.9% 215.25 shares
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Yes 2% 100 shares
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Yes 2% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

No 99.7% 1,521 shares
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?

Yes 98.9% 10 shares
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?

No 99.8% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?

No 99.8% 100 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?

No 99.4% 5 shares