Polymarket Trader

orzanovn

0x45dbbf4fed6c845f4e857edc6e744236501c8f65

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.57K
Realized PnL: $7.07K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.98K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$332.5

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $525
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.47K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$274.89

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.5K
User PnL: -$34.84

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$990.26

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.5K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$87.61

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $123
Potential payout: $600.02
Potential profit: $477.02
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$264.42

Yes position

Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $399.99
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $72.58

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.71K

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $562.32

Yes position

Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $432.55

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $428.52

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $219.74

Disguised position

LoL: Disguised vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $172

Bulls position

Bulls vs. Heat

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.39

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $138.09

Yes position

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.56

Bucks position

Bulls vs. Bucks

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.18

Warriors position

Warriors vs. Suns

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.86

Nuggets position

Clippers vs. Nuggets

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.89

No position

Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.65

Pelicans position

Pelicans vs. Timberwolves

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.13

Yes position

Will Amazon (AMZN) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.24

Los Ratones position

LoL: Movistar KOI vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.14

paiN Gaming position

LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO1) - CBLOL Cup Regular Season

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.9

Natus Vincere position

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.82

Pacers position

Pelicans vs. Pacers

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.67

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.41

Barça eSports position

LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Barça eSports (BO3) - LES Kick-off Playoffs

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.46

Pistons position

Suns vs. Pistons

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.29

Zakharova position

Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anastasia Zakharova

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58

Uchijima position

Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Moyuka Uchijima

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 54.9% 500 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 54.9% 1,000 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Yes 32.1% 1,000 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 53.4% 500 shares
Trump out as President before 2027?

Yes 16% 5,000 shares
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Yes 81.8% 327.54 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 75% 99 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 72.9% 198.55 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 55.7% 302.47 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Yes 1.1% 11,360.11 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.8% 5,000 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Yes 30% 1,000 shares