No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $220.6
- Potential payout
- $275.75
- Potential profit
- $55.15
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $20.6
Polymarket Trader
vegashell
0x46a3c0af93fc11793ae0b55b943d1025ca50032e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $764.11
- Realized PnL
- $400.96
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.9%
- Current value
- $134.76
- Potential payout
- $228.98
- Potential profit
- $94.23
- Multiplier
- 1.70x
- User PnL
- $14.76
No position
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $60.78
- Potential payout
- $196.08
- Potential profit
- $135.29
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$39.22
Yes position
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $105.36
- Potential payout
- $169.93
- Potential profit
- $64.57
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $5.36
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $121.21
- Potential payout
- $133.93
- Potential profit
- $12.72
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $21.21
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $71.79
- Potential payout
- $107.14
- Potential profit
- $35.36
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- -$3.21
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $28.43
- Potential payout
- $40.32
- Potential profit
- $11.9
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $3.43
No position
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $21.19
- Potential payout
- $24.22
- Potential profit
- $3.03
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.51
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.26
Yes position
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.5
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.75
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.3
Rajasthan Royals position
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.48
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.14
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.64
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.94
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.04
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $7.89
Zhizhen Zhang position
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.68
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.07
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
No position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54%
- Multiplier
- 1.85x
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $1.32
Yes position
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.63
Yes position
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$19.89
Yes position
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$46.07
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$56.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No 70% 107.14 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 62% 40.32 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 74.7% 133.93 shares
- Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?No 78% 128.21 shares
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes 62% 80.65 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 71.5% 145.83 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 86% 116.28 shares
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 62% 80.65 shares
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 62% 80.65 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 48% 145.83 shares
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes 69.9% 28.61 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 78% 65.78 shares