polihearten

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $5.3K
Potential payout: $14.94K
Potential profit: $9.64K
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $3.46K

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.52K
Potential profit: $9.52K
User PnL: -$199.99

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.1%
Current value: $984.55
Potential payout: $5.45K
Potential profit: $4.47K
Multiplier: 5.54x
User PnL: $384.55

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $520.49
Potential payout: $5.18K
Potential profit: $4.66K
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$329.51

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $415.76
Potential payout: $5.1K
Potential profit: $4.69K
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: -$234.23

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.91K
Potential profit: $4.91K
User PnL: -$600

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.26K
Potential profit: $4.26K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $477.97
Potential payout: $2.98K
Potential profit: $2.5K
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: $21.66

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.68K
Potential profit: $2.68K
User PnL: -$459.99

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $1.32K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will France strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $1.32K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.9%
Current value: $311.93
Potential payout: $1.21K
Potential profit: $894.75
Multiplier: 3.87x
User PnL: $111.93

Yes position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $751.59
Potential profit: $751.59
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $748.96
Potential profit: $748.96
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $746.62
Potential profit: $746.62
User PnL: -$283.94

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $666.67
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $579.9
Potential profit: $579.9
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $29.72
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $525.83
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$70.28

Yes position

Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $502
Potential profit: $502
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $17.89
Potential payout: $490.2
Potential profit: $472.31
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$32.11

Yes position

Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $425.75
Potential profit: $425.75
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $375.85
Potential profit: $375.85
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $289.14
Potential profit: $289.14
User PnL: -$124.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $890.68

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $688.49

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $611.11

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $570.1

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $429.84

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $199.74

Yes position

Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League?

Ends Jun 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $134.8

Yes position

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.56

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.77

Yes position

Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.66

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.25

Yes position

Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.67

No position

Will Pope Leo visit Turkey first?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17

Yes position

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.03

Yes position

Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.96

Yes position

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.92

Yes position

Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2.73

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots?