No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $2.05K
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $52.58
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $50.79
Polymarket Trader
Manzana698
0x4727000d08134c20086b078d20256a3363d25aa5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.44K
- Realized PnL
- $2.34K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $1.6K
- Potential payout
- $1.62K
- Potential profit
- $25.13
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $24.48
No position
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $794.65
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $540.9
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$95.35
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- User PnL
- -$1.26K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $628.42
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $406.78
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.02
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.83
Yes position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.35
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.98
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.26
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.38
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $56.38
No position
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.35
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $49.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.1
No position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.71
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $26.09
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $24.55
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.55
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.22
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.68
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.51
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 96.9% 1,621.61 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?No 99.3% 1,582.62 shares
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No 66.6% 1,335.55 shares
- Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.8% 892.13 shares
- Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 89% 892.13 shares
- Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 11.8% 6,756.72 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?No 97.7% 1,582.62 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 99.9% 1,548.52 shares
- Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 20% 6,756.73 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 72.3% 1,866.28 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 93.9% 1,548.53 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 95% 1,324.21 shares