Blurry-Ball

Implied probability: 95.1%
Current value: $710.93
Potential payout: $747.95
Potential profit: $37.02
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $103.43

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $400.56
Potential payout: $552.5
Potential profit: $151.94
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $72.76

Yes position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $38.44
Potential payout: $404.67
Potential profit: $366.22
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$10.12

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $258.85
Potential payout: $282.89
Potential profit: $24.05
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $8.85

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $142.95
Potential payout: $238.25
Potential profit: $95.3
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: $1.71

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $25.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $174.3
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $23.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $176.5
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $13.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $186.7
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $7.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $192.1
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $19.25
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $120.75
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$3.4

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $20.34
Potential payout: $110.26
Potential profit: $89.92
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $1.69

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $4.62
Potential payout: $109.89
Potential profit: $105.27
Multiplier: 23.81x
User PnL: -$5.38

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $6.53
Potential payout: $109.74
Potential profit: $103.21
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $86.45
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $3.56
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.74

No position

Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $41.63
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $33.38
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $73.17
Potential profit: $73.17
User PnL: -$25.1

No position

Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $56.22
Potential payout: $68.99
Potential profit: $12.77
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $8.22

No position

Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $44.67
Potential payout: $64.29
Potential profit: $19.61
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.11
Potential profit: $61.11
User PnL: -$22

No position

Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $40.75
Potential payout: $46.3
Potential profit: $5.56
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $10.19

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.06
Potential profit: $37.06
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.04
Potential profit: $35.04
User PnL: -$23.25

Yes position

Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $13.61
Potential payout: $21.43
Potential profit: $7.82
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $21.05
Potential profit: $11.05
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $264.68

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253.5

No position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.47

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.85

Yes position

Will Artemis II launch by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.56

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.74

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.52

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.36

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.82

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17

Yes position

Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.06

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.47

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.43

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.18

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $9.07

Usyk position

Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.03

Yes position

Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.3

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.72

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.59

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.34

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?