0x474d...0fc0

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $243.9
Potential profit: $243.9
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $192.31
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $152.9
Potential payout: $153.9
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: $10.54

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $3.02
Potential payout: $116.04
Potential profit: $113.02
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$26.82

Yes position

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $21.85
Potential payout: $110.91
Potential profit: $89.06
Multiplier: 5.08x
User PnL: $7.55

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.7%
Current value: $7.89
Potential payout: $103.09
Potential profit: $95.21
Multiplier: 13.07x
User PnL: -$2.11

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $7.98
Potential payout: $97.35
Potential profit: $89.36
Multiplier: 12.20x
User PnL: $3.19

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 34.4%
Current value: $33.24
Potential payout: $96.77
Potential profit: $63.53
Multiplier: 2.91x
User PnL: $13.5

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $5.69
Potential payout: $92.59
Potential profit: $86.9
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$4.31

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $5.74
Potential payout: $76.54
Potential profit: $70.8
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$4.21

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $7.99
Potential payout: $61.73
Potential profit: $53.73
Multiplier: 7.72x
User PnL: -$2.01

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $23.1
Potential payout: $54.35
Potential profit: $31.25
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.2%
Current value: $9.08
Potential payout: $50.05
Potential profit: $40.97
Multiplier: 5.51x
User PnL: -$0.63

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.92
Potential profit: $39.92
User PnL: -$9.58

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.48
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $21.28
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$13

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.8
Potential profit: $16.8
User PnL: -$4.97

No position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.08
Potential profit: $14.08
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $14
User PnL: -$9.8

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.76
Potential profit: $13.76
User PnL: -$9.81

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $55.25

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.48

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.87

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.37

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.54

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.99

Yes position

Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.94

Yes position

Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.67

No position

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.1

Yes position

Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.71

Yes position

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.08

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.18

Yes position

Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $4.1

No position

Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.77

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.66

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.11

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.27

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$13.91

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$14.22

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?