Polymarket Trader

reffi

0x480366abb23a63a7ea28a7a2eec7766621b45134

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $5.8K
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.2K
Potential profit: $3.2K
User PnL: -$812

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $1.51K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $987.5
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $537.5

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $548.75
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $1.95K
Multiplier: 4.56x
User PnL: -$461.24

No position

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.55K
Potential payout: $1.64K
Potential profit: $90.43
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $8.22

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $211.37
Potential payout: $1.36K
Potential profit: $1.15K
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: $65.93

No position

Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $641.81
Potential payout: $725.21
Potential profit: $83.4
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$39.89

Yes position

Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $181.25
Potential payout: $304.62
Potential profit: $123.37
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$71.59

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $264
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $36
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$4.5

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $193.34
Potential payout: $228.8
Potential profit: $35.46
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$6.66

No position

ByteDance IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $190.96
Potential payout: $205.34
Potential profit: $14.37
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$5.04

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $39.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $160.7
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: -$145.38

No position

Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92.3%
Current value: $184.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $15.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.9%
Current value: $56.76
Potential payout: $109.47
Potential profit: $52.71
Multiplier: 1.93x
User PnL: -$43.24

No position

Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $90
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $42.3
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $47.7
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: -$7.2

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $18.12
Potential payout: $65.88
Potential profit: $47.76
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$11.44

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $41
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $46
User PnL: -$36.34

No position

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $24.82
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $9.18
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: -$6.46

No position

SBF released from custody in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $22.84
Potential payout: $23.79
Potential profit: $0.95
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.38

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $6.47
Potential payout: $20.53
Potential profit: $14.06
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $8.06
Potential payout: $9.32
Potential profit: $1.26
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.86

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Netanyahu out by April 30?

No 99.3% 61.26 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

No 66% 62.87 shares
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Yes 57% 103 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Yes 79% 189 shares
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Yes 26% 1,200 shares
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Yes 25% 2,000 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

No 98% 2,000 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Yes 99.8% 2,000 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Yes 99.6% 2,000 shares
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

No 96.8% 1,250 shares
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?

No 94% 55.17 shares
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?

No 95.7% 9.32 shares