FastFormula1

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $619.77
Potential profit: $619.77
User PnL: -$77.25

Yes position

Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $420.1
Potential profit: $420.1
User PnL: -$225.62

Yes position

Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $45.83
Potential payout: $327.37
Potential profit: $281.54
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$123.04

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $320
User PnL: -$40

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $310.85
Potential profit: $310.85
User PnL: -$81.91

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $301.68
Potential profit: $301.68
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $278.57
Potential profit: $278.57
User PnL: -$32

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $210.71
Potential payout: $232.83
Potential profit: $22.12
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $10.71

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $209.23
Potential profit: $209.23
User PnL: -$120.52

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 10.8%
Current value: $21.47
Potential payout: $199.71
Potential profit: $178.25
Multiplier: 9.30x
User PnL: -$70.61

Yes position

Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $101.48
Potential payout: $148.15
Potential profit: $46.67
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $61.48

Yes position

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.22
Potential payout: $145.06
Potential profit: $144.84
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$49.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.86
Potential profit: $133.86
User PnL: -$74.96

No position

Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $94.67
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $38.67
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$5.33

Yes position

Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $105.7
Potential profit: $104.7
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$7.67

Yes position

Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $28
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $71.99
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$16

Yes position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.97
Potential profit: $68.97
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $2.56
Potential payout: $54.47
Potential profit: $51.91
Multiplier: 21.28x
User PnL: -$10.02

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $26.84
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $25.79
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.22
Potential profit: $39.22
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.06
Potential profit: $36.06
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $7.06
Potential profit: $6.71
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: -$0.52

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $375.54

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $257.58

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $232.37

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.84

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.1

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.13

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.07

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 6?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.74

No position

Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.29

Israel position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.52

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.73

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.48

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET