Polymarket Trader

0x4869856EEE031070F96dbf95784dacfe1a3D509b-1772403621819

0x4869856eee031070f96dbf95784dacfe1a3d509b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $78.22
Realized PnL: $319.04
Win rate: 91.7%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.8K
User PnL: -$133

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $917.8
Potential profit: $917.8
User PnL: -$23

Yes position

Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $114.76
Potential profit: $114.76
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.14
Potential profit: $107.14
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $103.45
Potential profit: $103.45
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $52.67
Potential payout: $71.17
Potential profit: $18.5
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $26.67

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $3.92
Potential payout: $64.81
Potential profit: $60.89
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$3.08

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.08
Potential profit: $51.08
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.66
Potential profit: $49.66
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.66
Potential profit: $41.66
User PnL: -$21

No position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.2
Potential profit: $33.2
User PnL: -$6

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73.7%
Current value: $21.38
Potential payout: $29.01
Potential profit: $7.63
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $11.38

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.83
Potential profit: $10.83
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $119.52

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.82

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.84

No position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $31.01

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.39

No position

Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.98

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.2

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.98

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.98

Yes position

Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.54

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94

No position

Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.84

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.8%
Multiplier: 2.65x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Multiplier: 1.91x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.37

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

No 34.5% 29.01 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 65% 9.23 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 87% 7.35 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Yes 17.9% 22.35 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Yes 17.4% 28.74 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 29% 17.24 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 68% 7.35 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 30% 33.33 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 44% 11.36 shares
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Yes 10.1% 49.66 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Yes 14% 213.47 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Yes 16.2% 123.31 shares