Yes position
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $66.02
- Potential payout
- $22.01K
- Potential profit
- $21.94K
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$417.06
Polymarket Trader
v1notlost
0x48f97930ac76cf00a8cc95deea81704f7f08e61d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $763.67
- Realized PnL
- $7.61K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.31K
- Potential profit
- $13.31K
- User PnL
- -$907.58
Yes position
X banned in U.K. by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.68K
- Potential profit
- $8.68K
- User PnL
- -$245.04
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.01K
- Potential profit
- $6.01K
- User PnL
- -$37.17
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.18K
- Potential profit
- $4.18K
- User PnL
- -$25.67
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $211.64
- Potential payout
- $4.03K
- Potential profit
- $3.82K
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$37.98
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.31K
- Potential profit
- $3.31K
- User PnL
- -$1.08K
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.06K
- Potential profit
- $3.06K
- User PnL
- -$110.67
Yes position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $10.54
- Potential payout
- $3.01K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$16.94
Yes position
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $75.71
- Potential payout
- $2.98K
- Potential profit
- $2.91K
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- $19.53
Yes position
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $22.81
- Potential payout
- $2.53K
- Potential profit
- $2.51K
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$119.13
Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $253.17
- Potential payout
- $2.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.77K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$102.02
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$22.35
Y
Yes position
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.87K
- Potential profit
- $1.87K
- User PnL
- -$33.16
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $20.67
- Potential payout
- $1.72K
- Potential profit
- $1.7K
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- $2.84
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $1.64K
- User PnL
- -$7.24
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $17.04
- Potential payout
- $1.62K
- Potential profit
- $1.61K
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$51.09
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$16.38
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$17.5
Yes position
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.48K
- Potential profit
- $1.48K
- User PnL
- -$44.95
No position
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- User PnL
- -$38.6
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?
Ends Dec 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- User PnL
- -$24
Yes position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.3%
- Current value
- $86.07
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- Multiplier
- 13.79x
- User PnL
- -$15.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.15K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $370.39
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $274.41
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $204.83
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200.75
No position
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.79
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.19
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.58
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.15
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.01
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.39
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.28
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.47
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.51
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 30?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.29
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 4?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.32
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.61
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59
Yes position
Will SBF be federally indicted by EOY?
Ends Dec 31, 2022- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.72
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $58.05
Yes position
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meeting?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.63
Yes position
[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.28
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.27
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US recession by end of 2026?Yes 13% 820 shares
- Trump out as President by June 30?Yes 0.4% 1,000 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 28% 100 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 1.1% 803.81 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 1.1% 100 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 1% 818.66 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No 23% 50 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 21.7% 90 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 12% 125.15 shares
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.5% 501.66 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No 0.4% 3,064.83 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Yes 2.9% 500 shares