No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $90.59
- Potential payout
- $183.01
- Potential profit
- $92.42
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$1.61
Polymarket Trader
lebensenergie
0x490690bf5ff3ce1ca743d5a393d83480cb70db6d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $559.66
- Realized PnL
- $133.11
- Win rate
- 54.2%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.1%
- Current value
- $131.02
- Potential payout
- $161.65
- Potential profit
- $30.63
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $55.89
Yes position
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $26.32
- Potential payout
- $122.4
- Potential profit
- $96.08
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $7.96
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $76.19
- Potential payout
- $119.99
- Potential profit
- $43.8
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $27.91
- Potential payout
- $118.75
- Potential profit
- $90.84
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $8.91
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $42.2
- Potential payout
- $72.76
- Potential profit
- $30.56
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- -$8.22
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $66.43
- Potential payout
- $68.6
- Potential profit
- $2.16
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $18.32
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $44.1
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $15.9
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $8.1
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $13.8
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $26.2
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$3.8
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $20.39
- Potential payout
- $35.46
- Potential profit
- $15.07
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $0.36
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $20.71
- Potential payout
- $31.63
- Potential profit
- $10.91
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $0.47
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.42
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: March
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.54
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.37
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $16.6
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $11.84
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.94
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.32
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.33
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.87
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.21
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.83
No position
X Money released by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.32
No position
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
France position
Spread: France (-1.5)
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-06-17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Over position
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$2.72
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$5.48
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 63% 119.99 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 69% 5 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?Yes 63% 16 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Yes 64% 16 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 14% 50 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 70% 21.76 shares
- Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 69% 15 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 44% 71 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?No 91% 34 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-17?Yes 57% 17.54 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes 20% 153.84 shares
- Spread: France (-1.5)France 39% 25.64 shares