Yes position
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $3.95
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$7.34
Polymarket Trader
Sandoval1553
0x493cef47ca12db5c08fb55747d6cd279ebdb953e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $393.89
- Realized PnL
- $2.56K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $9.5
- Potential payout
- $999.94
- Potential profit
- $990.44
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $875.5
- Potential profit
- $872
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $6
- Potential payout
- $799.99
- Potential profit
- $793.99
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $599.1
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$23.1
Yes position
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $32.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $467.5
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$12.5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $468.12
- Potential profit
- $468.12
- User PnL
- -$46.12
Yes position
Anduril IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $43.16
- Potential payout
- $331.99
- Potential profit
- $288.83
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$36.69
Yes position
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $17.07
- Potential payout
- $200.86
- Potential profit
- $183.79
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$3.01
Yes position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $200.02
- Potential profit
- $190.02
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $11
- Potential payout
- $200.02
- Potential profit
- $189.02
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $11
- Potential payout
- $200.01
- Potential profit
- $189
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.9%
- Current value
- $13.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $186.3
- Multiplier
- 14.60x
- User PnL
- -$6.34
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $29
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $171
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $11.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $188.9
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- -$4.9
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.9
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$10.5
Yes position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $17.5
- Potential payout
- $194.44
- Potential profit
- $176.94
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$1.94
Yes position
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $85.95
- Potential payout
- $108.8
- Potential profit
- $22.85
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$4.35
Yes position
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $16.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $83.5
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $16
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $84
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$76
Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $25.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $74.5
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will Trump Airport become law this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $7.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $92.55
- Multiplier
- 13.42x
- User PnL
- -$4.05
No position
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $8.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $91.5
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$9.5
Yes position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $86
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $414
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $407.61
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.34
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.5
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.9
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.4
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.6
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.5
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $80
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $70.8
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.8
No position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.81
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.43
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $49.2
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $41.2
Yes position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.8
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.66
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.6
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.5
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?Yes 1.2% 2.7 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 10.5% 20 shares
- Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?No 1.1% 100 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?No 14% 60 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?No 33% 60 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes 66% 60 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 8% 100 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?No 64% 20 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 85% 20 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No 99.6% 20 shares
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 17% 99.99 shares
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 92% 30 shares