0x4978...ea9a

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $44.41
Potential payout: $164.49
Potential profit: $120.07
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $8.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $123
Potential profit: $122.94
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $107.3
Potential profit: $106.92
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$21.34

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $61.5
Potential payout: $74.54
Potential profit: $13.04
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $49.57

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 12.1%
Current value: $7.47
Potential payout: $61.98
Potential profit: $54.51
Multiplier: 8.30x
User PnL: $1.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $20.09
Potential payout: $60.88
Potential profit: $40.79
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $59.84
Potential payout: $59.87
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $8.41

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $15.88
Potential payout: $47.41
Potential profit: $31.53
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $1.66

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $42.84
Potential profit: $41.34
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $42.2
Potential profit: $42.18
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $40.42
Potential profit: $40.08
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$1.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $39.4
Potential profit: $32.9
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $36.72
Potential payout: $36.89
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $19.2
Potential payout: $35.89
Potential profit: $16.69
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $6.79

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $33.21
Potential payout: $33.23
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.51
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $24.47
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.61

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $22.99
Potential payout: $23.01
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 10.8%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $19.16
Potential profit: $17.09
Multiplier: 9.26x
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $18.64
Potential payout: $18.72
Potential profit: $0.08
User PnL: $7.22

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $16.92
Potential profit: $16.91
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $2.43
Potential payout: $16.74
Potential profit: $14.31
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $12.08
Potential payout: $12.1
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $10.61
Potential payout: $10.62
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.25
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.37

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.04

Ognjen Milic position

Bengaluru 2: Joshua Charlton vs Ognjen Milic

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.41

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.7

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.14

Aurora Gaming position

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.84

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.7

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.03

magic position

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.09

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.88

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET