No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $139.61K
- Potential profit
- $139.61K
- User PnL
- -$63.29K
Polymarket Trader
ketman
0x49adba6092a3288ef0ae2e5d5d1e77e69331f71a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.4K
- Realized PnL
- $152.51K
- Win rate
- 57.1%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $4.39K
- Potential payout
- $9.15K
- Potential profit
- $4.76K
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- $1.52K
No position
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $2.48
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.53
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.07K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.83K
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.59K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.02K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.44K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20.08
No position
Fed rate cut in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$604.18
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$900
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.29K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.95K
No position
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.81K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 21% 4,000 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 21% 8,000 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 20% 3,101.25 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 88% 898.21 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 85.5% 11,700.07 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?No 53% 100 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?No 23% 100 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 83.5% 50 shares
- Trump out as President before GTA VI?No 49% 5 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?No 32% 63.73 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?No 31% 197.84 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?No 30% 224.73 shares