Yes position
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $3.99
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.59K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.91
Polymarket Trader
zarathoustra
0x49ae2066d84a70bb4c39a35f1b87cf2e75f3617a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $271.3
- Realized PnL
- -$37.46
- Win rate
- 52.2%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $82.39
- Potential payout
- $686.56
- Potential profit
- $604.17
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$34.81
Yes position
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $61.69
- Potential payout
- $316.37
- Potential profit
- $254.68
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $27.69
No position
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $90.16
- Potential payout
- $286.24
- Potential profit
- $196.07
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $16.17
Canadiens position
Sabres vs. Canadiens
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $3.93
- Potential payout
- $34.17
- Potential profit
- $30.24
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$6.07
Yes position
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $1.27
- Potential payout
- $23.08
- Potential profit
- $21.81
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.73
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $3.11
- Potential payout
- $22.22
- Potential profit
- $19.11
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$2.89
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 79.9%
- Current value
- $11.1
- Potential payout
- $13.9
- Potential profit
- $2.8
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.2%
- Current value
- $1.19
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $7.15
- Multiplier
- 7.02x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.7%
- Current value
- $4.92
- Potential payout
- $5.62
- Potential profit
- $0.69
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $2.17
- Potential payout
- $2.33
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $2.05
- Potential payout
- $2.09
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $1.41
- Potential payout
- $1.49
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $1.32
- Potential profit
- $0.4
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 92.6%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.07
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.93x
- User PnL
- $3.91
Yes position
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.27
No position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 60%
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $1.4
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.96
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.58
Canadiens position
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
Yes position
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.58
No position
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 15%
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.85
No position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.3
No position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.9
No position
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.04
Yes position
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.45
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.08
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$6.86
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$28.59
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 27% 14.81 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 27% 7.41 shares
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 64% 10 shares
- Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 13% 69.23 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 23.7% 37.59 shares
- Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 11% 9.09 shares
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 2.3% 55.55 shares
- Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 29% 17.24 shares
- Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?No 40% 13.05 shares
- Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 30.2% 33.13 shares
- Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 29.3% 34.17 shares
- Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 12% 8.33 shares