Polymarket Trader

pegfault

0x4a2313b6abb5229f02cd380c9fb7a884ecef079f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $55.31K
Realized PnL: $14.13K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $11.05K
Potential payout: $18.89K
Potential profit: $7.84K
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $850.07

Yes position

Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17K
Potential profit: $17K
User PnL: -$1.18K

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 92.9%
Current value: $13.93K
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$465.36

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 38.3%
Current value: $5.69K
Potential payout: $14.89K
Potential profit: $9.19K
Multiplier: 2.61x
User PnL: -$3.04K

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.5K
Potential profit: $11.5K
User PnL: -$1.32K

Yes position

Arsenal wins the Premier League?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.15K
Potential profit: $10.15K
User PnL: -$3.65K

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $7.5K
Potential payout: $7.5K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $2.25K

No position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $6.16K
Potential payout: $6.29K
Potential profit: $128.89
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $144.47

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $452.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.55K
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: -$297.5

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$3.95K

No position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $4.93K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $72.5
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $96.86

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $3.63K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $175.12

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$750

Yes position

Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$1.05K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$1.54K

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$2.18K

Cowboys position

Cardinals vs. Cowboys

Ends Nov 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$1.24K

Steelers position

Steelers vs. Ravens

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$260

No position

US bank failure by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$1.09K

Lions position

Commanders vs. Lions

Ends Jan 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.4K
User PnL: -$1.06K

Cowboys position

Cowboys vs. Lions

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$380

No position

Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$810

No position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1K
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $298.5

No position

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $976.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $23.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $191.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Biden drops out of presidential race?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.18K

No position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1K

Yes position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $860.01

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $840

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $700

Commanders position

Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $600

Rams position

Vikings vs. Rams

Ends Jan 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $560

Cowboys position

Cowboys vs. Steelers

Ends Oct 7, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $560

Yes position

Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $540

Rams position

Saints vs. Rams

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $500

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465

Cowboys position

Cowboys vs. Raiders

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $420

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $400

No position

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $400

No position

Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $360

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $284.16

Bills position

Dolphins vs. Bills

Ends Sep 12, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $275

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?

Ends Jul 14, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200

No position

Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.22

No position

Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170

No position

Up Only podcast released by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.32

Yes position

Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04?

Ends Dec 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.65

Yes position

Will Arsenal beat Paris Saint-Germain?

Ends Oct 1, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129

No position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.95

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

No 69% 5,000 shares
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?

No 98.9% 11,722.74 shares
Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January?

No 82% 400 shares
Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January?

No 80% 36.77 shares
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Yes 78% 5,000 shares
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Yes 92% 5,000 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Yes 70% 2,500 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Yes 70% 5,000 shares
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?

No 70.2% 46.08 shares
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?

No 70.1% 149.58 shares
US government shutdown Saturday?

No 79% 4,590.38 shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 96.4% 1,422.2 shares