Polymarket Trader

Allegon

0x4a2892d8c3cec95e27aa4bae479d9e621528d58b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $486.88
Realized PnL: $1.85K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $345
Potential profit: $345
User PnL: -$99.36

No position

Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $111.84
Potential payout: $263.16
Potential profit: $151.32
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $11.84

Yes position

Will Elsa Pinto win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $3.45
Potential payout: $238.1
Potential profit: $234.65
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$96.55

Yes position

Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $43.02
Potential payout: $232.56
Potential profit: $189.54
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$56.98

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $80.41
Potential payout: $189.2
Potential profit: $108.79
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$12.3

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $108.49
Potential payout: $188.68
Potential profit: $80.19
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $8.49

Yes position

Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $87.12
Potential payout: $151.52
Potential profit: $64.4
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$12.88

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $7.5
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $7.25

Yes position

Will voter turnout be between 80% and 82% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Ends Nov 7, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $7.18
Potential payout: $21.43
Potential profit: $14.25
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 23.2%
Current value: $3.86
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $12.81
Multiplier: 4.32x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Ends Nov 7, 2026

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $9.12
Potential payout: $14.25
Potential profit: $5.13
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$0.86

Yes position

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $1.93
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $5.08
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $4.83
Potential payout: $6.9
Potential profit: $2.07
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $1.29
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $4.71
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$1.29

Yes position

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $2.13
Potential profit: $1.78
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: -$0.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $825.3

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.08

No position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $146.67

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.56

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 7?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.15

Yes position

Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $52.56

No position

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87%
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $46.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 8?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.17

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.88

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.75

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 5?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.74

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.06

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 97.4%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $19.98

Yes position

Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.17

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.95

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.91

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.98

Yes position

Deel IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $14.64

Yes position

Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $13.66

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 8?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.83

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.98

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Yes 35.7% 68 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 25.3% 100 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 25.4% 100 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 25.4% 100 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 25.5% 100 shares
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

Yes 70% 18 shares
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

Yes 70% 100 shares
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

Yes 70.2% 100 shares
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Yes 8.3% 100 shares
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Yes 8.3% 100 shares
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Yes 0.3% 23 shares
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Yes 21% 100 shares