Polymarket Trader

DanielTao

0x4a6c075d721f81fc5fc44a3a9bfeacf581784fc3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.4
Realized PnL: $559.87
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 7
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $74.96
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$14.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $63.57
Potential profit: $63.53
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$19.97

Yes position

Will Japanese PM apologize for China comments in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.44
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.98

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $18.52
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $11.49
Potential profit: $11.48
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$9.98

Yes position

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.94
Potential profit: $6.94
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $0.83
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $0.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Estar Backs position

Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $296.01

No position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144

No position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.53

Amaru Gaming position

Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.93

No position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?

Yes 15% 33.33 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?

Yes 30% 33.33 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Estar Backs 20% 32.06 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Amaru Gaming 29.5% 84.67 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Estar Backs 78% 32.05 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Estar Backs 8.6% 291.67 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Estar Backs 15% 166.67 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Estar Backs 44.8% 111.6 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Estar Backs 51% 98.04 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Estar Backs 57% 87.72 shares
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Estar Backs 67% 168.5 shares
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 72% 6.94 shares