Polymarket Trader

0x4ad6...bf78

0x4ad6f0f4e0799bf87b7fec2595b7cd6be5cebf78

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $761.59
Realized PnL: $427.22
Win rate: 50%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 14
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $684.42
Potential payout: $65.18K
Potential profit: $64.5K
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$1.43K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.88K
Potential profit: $13.88K
User PnL: -$27.75

Yes position

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $77.08
Potential payout: $10.28K
Potential profit: $10.2K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$204.74

Yes position

Will the US strike Iran next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.28K
Potential profit: $6.28K
User PnL: -$19.99

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $1.27K
User PnL: -$14

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.24K
Potential profit: $1.24K
User PnL: -$2.2

Yes position

Will the US strike Syria next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US strike Yemen next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $809.98
Potential profit: $809.98
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $548.14
Potential profit: $548.14
User PnL: -$39.8

Yes position

Will the US strike another country first?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $444.45
Potential profit: $444.45
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $430
Potential profit: $430
User PnL: -$3.98

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $390.45
Potential profit: $390.45
User PnL: -$3.99

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $175.35
Potential profit: $175.27
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$17.51

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.36
Potential profit: $136.36
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121.95
Potential profit: $121.95
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US strike Iran next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.7
Potential profit: $72.7
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.82
Potential profit: $40.82
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.01

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.4

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.02

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.04

No position

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.41

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.92

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.83

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14%
Multiplier: 7.17x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.52

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$22.67

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$40.96

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Yes 9% 84.44 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Yes 23% 30.76 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Yes 52% 30.77 shares
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 2.6% 1,904.78 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Yes 22% 312.5 shares
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 2.5% 320 shares
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 3% 334.66 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Yes 1.6% 322.58 shares
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 3.5% 576.91 shares
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 3.4% 588.24 shares
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 3.2% 285.23 shares
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 5.1% 1,965.23 shares