Polymarket Trader

0x4b17...42cc

0x4b1786c3115dc2fe8e9dfc975572b840f39e42cc

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $55.42
Realized PnL: -$1.54
Win rate: 35.7%
Open positions: 7
Closed positions: 14
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $21
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $5.25

No position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $17.94
Potential payout: $18
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $16
User PnL: -$4.16

Yes position

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $3.42
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $8.58
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$1.38

Yes position

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $0.74
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $10.26
Multiplier: 14.93x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.2%
Current value: $7.66
Potential payout: $9
Potential profit: $1.34
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $4.67
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.33
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $4.89

No position

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.9%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

China coup attempt before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.3%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.2%
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$5.7

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

No 93.4% 5 shares
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Yes 85.2% 9 shares
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Yes 11% 14 shares
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?

No 83% 6 shares
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes 28% 8 shares
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

Yes 11% 14 shares
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes 21% 5 shares
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

No 73% 9 shares
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

No 91.7% 9 shares
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?

No 79% 6 shares
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes 21% 5 shares
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

No 90.8% 5 shares