johnnath1222

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $4.09
Potential payout: $2.73K
Potential profit: $2.72K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$99.16

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $370.61
Potential payout: $2.39K
Potential profit: $2.02K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $25.68

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $261.61
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $2.01K
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $352.5
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $1.92K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $51.47

Yes position

Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $25.31
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.34K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$145.72

Yes position

Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $883
Potential profit: $883
User PnL: -$4.42

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $709.73
Potential profit: $709.73
User PnL: -$3.85

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $560.72
Potential profit: $560.72
User PnL: -$5.02

Yes position

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $509.95
Potential profit: $509.95
User PnL: -$3.06

Yes position

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $5.48
Potential payout: $497.98
Potential profit: $492.5
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$36.71

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.8%
Current value: $337.29
Potential payout: $402.49
Potential profit: $65.2
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $66.41

Yes position

Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 31.6%
Current value: $126.4
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $273.6
Multiplier: 3.16x
User PnL: $79.2

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $345.8
Potential profit: $345.8
User PnL: -$29.94

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Ends Jan 20, 2029

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $181
Potential payout: $280.62
Potential profit: $99.62
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $5.02

Yes position

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $84.53
Potential payout: $260.09
Potential profit: $175.56
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $50.52

Yes position

Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $38.71
Potential payout: $249.71
Potential profit: $211.01
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $19.6

Yes position

Joe Kent charged by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $219.26
Potential profit: $219.26
User PnL: -$2.63

No position

Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$14

No position

Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$4.5

No position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $199.99
User PnL: -$34

Yes position

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $188.22
Potential profit: $188.22
User PnL: -$4.7

Yes position

Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $10.22
Potential payout: $167.54
Potential profit: $157.32
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: $4.8

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.51
Potential profit: $166.51
User PnL: -$6.66

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.83
Potential profit: $148.83
User PnL: -$11.56

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Steve Garvey get first place in the California Senate Primary?

Ends Mar 3, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $820.41

Yes position

Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 30-40% of the vote?

Ends Feb 20, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $711.49

Yes position

Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote?

Ends Feb 24, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $562.53

Yes position

Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $503.56

Yes position

Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win?

Ends Jan 13, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $492.86

No position

Will Steve Garvey get first place in the California Senate Primary?

Ends Mar 3, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $453.76

Yes position

Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 30.5%
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $429.51

Yes position

Will Adam Schiff get first place in the California Senate Primary?

Ends Feb 28, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $365.76

No position

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $364.67

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $358.82

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.62

No position

Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $327.59

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $316.79

No position

Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win?

Ends May 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $315

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary?

Ends Jan 23, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $307.13

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $295.3

No position

Will Adam Schiff get first place in the California Senate Primary?

Ends Feb 28, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $293.58

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $290.34

Yes position

Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $286.57

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $254.96

Yes position

Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $244.13

No position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $241.93

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?