Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Current value
- $30.6
- Potential payout
- $428.57
- Potential profit
- $397.97
- Multiplier
- 14.01x
- User PnL
- $15.6
Polymarket Trader
0x4B30397915f0967711bD6202d010863930CCF201-1773128039474
0x4b30397915f0967711bd6202d010863930ccf201
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $106.2
- Realized PnL
- $264.98
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.24
- Potential payout
- $97.92
- Potential profit
- $85.68
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$27.76
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $96.15
- Potential profit
- $96.15
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Current value
- $3.44
- Potential payout
- $56.82
- Potential profit
- $53.38
- Multiplier
- 16.53x
- User PnL
- -$1.56
Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $4.29
- Potential payout
- $50.48
- Potential profit
- $46.19
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$10.71
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $31.01
- Potential payout
- $36.7
- Potential profit
- $5.69
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $11.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $9.46
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $26.25
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- $4.46
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $28.57
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Current value
- $3.59
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $24.99
- Multiplier
- 7.97x
- User PnL
- -$1.41
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.8%
- Current value
- $10.04
- Potential payout
- $28.09
- Potential profit
- $18.05
- Multiplier
- 2.80x
- User PnL
- $5.04
Yes position
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.94
- Potential profit
- $22.94
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.39
- Potential profit
- $22.39
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.63
- Potential profit
- $15.63
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.38
- Potential profit
- $15.38
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.44
- Potential profit
- $12.44
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.47
- Potential profit
- $8.47
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $1.53
- Potential payout
- $7.11
- Potential profit
- $5.58
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$3.47
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $97.49
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.9
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.44
Yes position
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.22
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.75
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.13
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.69
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.41
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.77
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.04
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.75
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.69
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.08
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.93
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.77
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.75
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.38
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95.4% 186.04 shares
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Yes 70.4% 7.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 14% 35.71 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 18.18 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 54% 18.52 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 40.2% 12.44 shares
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes 21.8% 22.94 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 16% 31.25 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 8.8% 56.82 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 17.8% 28.09 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 17.5% 28.57 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.2% 96.15 shares