Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $30.15
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $59.85
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$13.95
Polymarket Trader
MichaelHogan3544
0x4b728832bfc0768f54e3d3b19414b17e1eaccd8e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $36.88
- Realized PnL
- $6.35K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.32
- Potential payout
- $45
- Potential profit
- $44.69
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Yes position
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $3.84
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $9.17
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $2.58
- Potential payout
- $3
- Potential profit
- $0.42
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Virginia Tech Hokies position
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Clemson Tigers
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
Yes position
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $629.22
North Carolina Central Eagles position
North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $567
Yes position
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $407.68
Yes position
Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $362.4
Yes position
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $299.13
Over position
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $221
Under position
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $213
Yes position
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" while addressing the nation on December 17?
Ends Dec 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $206.18
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Mette Frederiksen in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $196.85
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?
Ends Dec 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195
No position
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" in Rome, GA on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.25
Over position
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $153.23
Yes position
Will the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $150.86
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons position
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. Milwaukee Panthers (W)
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.33
Yes position
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.02
Yes position
Will Liftoff Mobile not IPO before April 2026?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.9
No position
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.03
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $120.08
Yes position
Will John Candy: I Like Me win Best Producer of a TV Movie at the 37th PGA Awards?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.18
Yes position
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $117.6
Yes position
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.01
No position
Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.3
Yes position
Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-04-04?
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.66
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?No 69% 95 shares
- Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?No 68% 713 shares
- Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?No 78% 141 shares
- Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?No 78% 516 shares
- Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?No 78% 328 shares
- Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?No 0.8% 803 shares
- Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?No 34% 223 shares
- Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?No 34% 526 shares
- Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?No 72% 985 shares
- Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?No 81% 808 shares
- Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?No 39% 159 shares
- Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?No 67% 207 shares