Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $617.66
- Potential payout
- $5.88K
- Potential profit
- $5.26K
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$302.3
Polymarket Trader
TheManInTheSky
0x4bc26247abd4c4f908c786c4873acd49beb2597a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.27K
- Realized PnL
- $49.34K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $647.17
- Potential payout
- $3.92K
- Potential profit
- $3.28K
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$366.36
No position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $155.33
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.92K
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$16.04
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $1.12K
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $659.43
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $193.51
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $233.49
- Potential payout
- $1.51K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$32.4
Yes position
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $121.44
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$88.87
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.7
- Potential payout
- $680.1
- Potential profit
- $678.4
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.82
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $346.37
- Potential payout
- $549.79
- Potential profit
- $203.42
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $282.41
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $365.02
- Potential profit
- $364.48
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.2
No position
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $10.79
- Potential payout
- $143.9
- Potential profit
- $133.11
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$10.79
Yes position
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $9.3
- Potential payout
- $31.01
- Potential profit
- $21.71
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.79K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.51K
No position
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.89K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.62K
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.7K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.67K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58K
Yes position
US military action against Iran before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.52K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75K
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
Will Russia enter Kostyantynivka by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $972.6
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $947.96
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $874.79
No position
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $855.48
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $842.91
No position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $768.42
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Yes 63% 35.55 shares
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Yes 32% 118.53 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 17% 796.43 shares
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?No 15% 143.9 shares
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?Yes 3.8% 12.4 shares
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?Yes 3.9% 50.45 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes 83% 31.37 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 35% 20 shares
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes 11% 581.54 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?No 15% 100 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No 34% 71.69 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?No 72% 19.47 shares