Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 18.4%
- Current value
- $3.3K
- Potential payout
- $18K
- Potential profit
- $14.7K
- Multiplier
- 5.45x
- User PnL
- -$5.7K
Polymarket Trader
0x4c29...7570
0x4c2966a198cd7ac982110d0219b037afa9997570
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $21.5K
- Realized PnL
- $328.47K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 81.7%
- Current value
- $14.7K
- Potential payout
- $18K
- Potential profit
- $3.3K
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $5.7K
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.21
- Potential payout
- $2.43K
- Potential profit
- $2.43K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$810.18
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $850
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $1.52K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $480
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $440
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $201.9
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.29K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $45.18
Yes position
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $923.29
- Potential payout
- $982.22
- Potential profit
- $58.93
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $67.36
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $302.51K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.05K
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.21K
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.92K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
No position
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $759.26
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $742.99
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $665.22
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $660.35
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $483.58
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $399.66
Yes position
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $398.85
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $331.99
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $289.85
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $255.62
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.27
Yes position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.38
Yes position
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $104.77
Yes position
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $100
Yes position
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $100
Yes position
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 40% 0.02 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 43% 1,935.76 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 10,000 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.3% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No 0.1% 85,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 11% 1,208.42 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 39% 164.98 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 11% 204.54 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 9% 703.95 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 37% 1,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 37% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 53% 1.9 shares