No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $3.05K
- Potential payout
- $3.61K
- Potential profit
- $559.08
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$36.45
Polymarket Trader
kinkkukaarlo
0x4c8a8959dd1ed988155c83274970e4e501513d45
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.71K
- Realized PnL
- $6.63K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $1.7K
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $48.14
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $79.99
No position
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.4K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $4.9
- User PnL
- $130.9
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $430
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $570
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- -$350
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $124
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $676
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$332
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $790
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$286
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $730
No position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $560
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?
Ends Jan 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $530
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $504
Yes position
Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on January 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $377.82
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $362.73
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $353.2
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $344.18
Yes position
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $340.78
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $315.4
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $279.53
No position
Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $257.07
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.41
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.4
Yes position
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on February 27, 2026?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.66
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126
Yes position
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.22
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $102
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.17
No position
US strike on Mexico by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.4
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.88
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 91% 707.98 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 96.3% 1,693 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 93% 1,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 86% 36 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 99.1% 2,661.07 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?No 84% 300 shares
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?No 83% 11.53 shares
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.5 and 42.9 on March 6, 2026?Yes 32% 5 shares
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.5 and 42.9 on March 6, 2026?Yes 31% 25 shares
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.5 and 42.9 on March 6, 2026?Yes 29% 5 shares
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?No 82% 50 shares
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?No 81% 53.84 shares