Polymarket Trader

breakinews

0x4ca828129da2b11d30af529712a073e31324ecd4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $366.66
Realized PnL: $634.48
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $625
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $272.57
Potential profit: $272.57
User PnL: -$43.14

Yes position

Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $245.67
Potential profit: $245.67
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $106.05
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $103.95
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$51.35

No position

Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $131.67
Potential payout: $198
Potential profit: $66.33
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $41.26

No position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $176.47
Potential profit: $176.47
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

BOA launches a USD stablecoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $146.48
Potential profit: $146.48
User PnL: -$38.5

Yes position

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $140.06
Potential profit: $140.06
User PnL: -$65

No position

Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $109.9
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $30.1
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $20.5

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $138.74
Potential profit: $138.74
User PnL: -$18.04

Yes position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $124.55
Potential profit: $124.55
User PnL: -$21.17

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $116.07
Potential profit: $116.07
User PnL: -$65

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $92.59
Potential profit: $92.59
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91.88
Potential profit: $91.88
User PnL: -$33.5

Yes position

China x Philippines military clash by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $89.17
Potential profit: $89.17
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.07
Potential profit: $79.07
User PnL: -$18.98

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70.58
Potential profit: $70.58
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.11
Potential profit: $56.11
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Macron out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.19
Potential profit: $48.19
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $19.04
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $19.42
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $14.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?

Ends May 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.83

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.37

Yes position

US-China trade deal before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.64

Yes position

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.23

Yes position

Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.82

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96000 and $98000 on May 2?

Ends May 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.88

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.48

No position

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.62

No position

Cardano ETF in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.25

No position

Ripple ETF approved by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.14

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.87

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.43

Yes position

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.26

Yes position

Ripple above $2.20 on May 2?

Ends May 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.81

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.27

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May?

Ends Jun 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.52

Yes position

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.5

Yes position

India x Pakistan military clash before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.17

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in April?

Ends May 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.84

No position

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.73

No position

Will Putin meet with Trump before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.14

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.1

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.09

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ?

No 45.7% 198 shares
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ?

No 63.9% 140 shares
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?

No 75% 210 shares
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 16% 625 shares
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Yes 83% 13.02 shares
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

No 17% 29.41 shares
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?

Yes 44.9% 11.15 shares
US recession in 2025?

Yes 28% 17.86 shares
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?

Yes 2% 168.75 shares
Macron out in 2025?

Yes 9% 55.56 shares
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?

Yes 19% 17.85 shares
Will Donald Trump say "Make a deal" during Merz events on June 5?

Yes 68% 14.71 shares