E4rth

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $8.6
Potential payout: $43
Potential profit: $34.4
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$1.38

No position

Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $3.58
Potential payout: $36
Potential profit: $32.42
Multiplier: 10.05x
User PnL: -$1.64

Yes position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $8.53
Potential payout: $28.9
Potential profit: $20.37
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.98

No position

Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $7.42
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $20.58
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $2.38

No position

Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $9.58
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $17.42
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $4.84
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $17.16
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $13.31
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $8.69
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $3.19

No position

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 59.1%
Current value: $9.45
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $6.55
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $5.4
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $9.6
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $7.94
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $7.06
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $2.84

No position

Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $5.63
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $9.38
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$2.18

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $2.03
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $12.98
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$3.08

Ferencvárosi TC position

Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $3.57
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $10.43
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$1.33

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $9.54
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $2.46
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?

Ends Jul 22, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $8.34
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $3.66
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$1.38

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $7.62
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$0.78

Ferencvárosi TC position

Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $4.84
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $6.16
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $6.99
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $4.02
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $2.15

Yes position

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $5.45
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.55
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $0.45

Over position

Ferencvárosi TC vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: O/U 3.5

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $4.65
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $5.35
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $8.06
Potential payout: $9
Potential profit: $0.95
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $2.84

Qarabağ Ağdam FK position

Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-2.5)

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $4.37
Potential payout: $9
Potential profit: $4.64
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Speech to the Nation?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $5.44
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $2.56
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $0.48

Resolved Context

Closed positions

UCAM Esports Club position

LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Team Heretics Academy (BO3) - LES Regular Season

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.94

UCAM Esports Club position

LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.04

Stefanos Tsitsipas position

Swiss Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.84

No position

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.83

No position

Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $2.87

No position

Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8

Juan Manuel Cerundolo position

Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.96

Yunchaokete Bu position

Lincoln: Evan Zhu vs Yunchaokete Bu

Ends Jul 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.73

No position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 90.8%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.28

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 80.4%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0

Cezar Cretu position

Cordenons: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.9

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.93

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.04

Guara Esports position

Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.61

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer position

Swedish Open: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Andrea Pellegrino