Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $28.47K
- Potential payout
- $53.22K
- Potential profit
- $24.75K
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $9.98K
Polymarket Trader
0x4cBE5306AF0473Ae7499096fecE9e8c7689F100a-1772769719447
0x4cbe5306af0473ae7499096fece9e8c7689f100a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $28.48K
- Realized PnL
- -$1.14K
- Win rate
- 58.1%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 43
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.97K
- Potential profit
- $9.97K
- User PnL
- -$1.07K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $800
- User PnL
- -$255.79
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $429
- Potential profit
- $429
- User PnL
- -$307.43
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $354.52
- Potential profit
- $354.52
- User PnL
- -$222.6
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.53
- Potential profit
- $25.53
- User PnL
- -$19.82
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $3.32
- Potential payout
- $4.02
- Potential profit
- $0.7
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.59
- Potential profit
- $2.59
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $1.32
- Potential payout
- $1.37
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.06
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.45
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.94
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.42
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.49
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.31
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.2
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.49
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $49.52
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.05
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.85
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.05
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $12.9
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $11.53
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $9.42
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $7.56
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $7.22
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $5.94
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.17
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.6
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$1.95
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.51
No position
Erdoฤan out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$7.93
No position
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$8.16
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$9.47
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$10.63
No position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$14.71
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$15.13
No position
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$27.08
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$30.2
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$41.87
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$47.8
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$53.6
No position
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$72
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$73.17
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$90.84
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$411.46
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37%
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- -$1.34K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 34% 505 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 32.5% 3,038.69 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 30.4% 5,625 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 29.9% 2,258.06 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 30.3% 11,364.87 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 29.8% 14,000 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 32.6% 13,019.22 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 35% 574.29 shares
- Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?No 94.6% 139.17 shares
- China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?No 83% 37 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 41% 432.8 shares
- Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?No 94.7% 228.33 shares