No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $410.02
- Potential payout
- $411.46
- Potential profit
- $1.44
- User PnL
- $31.84
Polymarket Trader
0x4cFde1F86106d32Eb10c1576224DcF9ede04BEF3-1770845647674
0x4cfde1f86106d32eb10c1576224dcf9ede04bef3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $891.34
- Realized PnL
- $197.89
- Win rate
- 71.4%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Ends Jan 10, 2027- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $269.66
- Potential payout
- $337.08
- Potential profit
- $67.42
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- -$30.34
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $38.57
- Potential payout
- $285.71
- Potential profit
- $247.14
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$61.43
Yes position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $70.83
- Potential payout
- $277.78
- Potential profit
- $206.94
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$29.17
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $172.41
- Potential profit
- $172.41
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $102.25
- Potential payout
- $105.36
- Potential profit
- $3.11
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $5.28
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $103.05
- Potential profit
- $103.05
- User PnL
- -$61.83
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.14
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.16
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.55
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.67
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.64
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.38
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.83
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $0.84
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.95
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18.32
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$48.84
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$54.98
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?No 94% 2.09 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 2.7% 29.68 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 1.7% 69.44 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No 96.9% 192.54 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 73% 255.59 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?No 92% 103.27 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 36% 263.93 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 47.01 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 61% 163.93 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No 91% 109.89 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No 99.6% 238.09 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 61.52 shares