Yes position
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $51.08
- Potential payout
- $17.03K
- Potential profit
- $16.98K
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $17.03
Polymarket Trader
knrad
@hardinpol
0x4d0121458bb2f96c6440c0f3835d675ad3ce1645
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $15.33K
- Realized PnL
- $43.26K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $4.94
- Potential payout
- $9.87K
- Potential profit
- $9.87K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$44.06
Yes position
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $12.74
- Potential payout
- $8.49K
- Potential profit
- $8.48K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$36.53
Yes position
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $74.32
- Potential payout
- $6.46K
- Potential profit
- $6.39K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$16.7
Yes position
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $261.75
- Potential payout
- $6.46K
- Potential profit
- $6.2K
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- $170.72
Yes position
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $38.78
- Potential payout
- $6.46K
- Potential profit
- $6.42K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$52.25
Yes position
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $132.49
- Potential payout
- $6.46K
- Potential profit
- $6.33K
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- $41.47
Yes position
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $42
- Potential payout
- $6.46K
- Potential profit
- $6.42K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$49.01
Yes position
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $48.07
- Potential payout
- $6.41K
- Potential profit
- $6.36K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$42.2
Yes position
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $144.83
- Potential payout
- $6.3K
- Potential profit
- $6.15K
- Multiplier
- 43.48x
- User PnL
- $56.15
Yes position
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Current value
- $343.99
- Potential payout
- $5.55K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 16.13x
- User PnL
- $265.85
Yes position
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $33.5
- Potential payout
- $4.47K
- Potential profit
- $4.43K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $2.23
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $214.33
- Potential payout
- $4.21K
- Potential profit
- $4K
- Multiplier
- 19.65x
- User PnL
- $155.03
Yes position
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.99K
- Potential profit
- $3.99K
- User PnL
- -$70.01
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $3.91K
- Potential payout
- $3.93K
- Potential profit
- $25.56
- User PnL
- $77.77
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $56.57
- Potential payout
- $3.65K
- Potential profit
- $3.59K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$23.95
Yes position
Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.44K
- Potential profit
- $3.44K
- User PnL
- -$56.19
Yes position
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.7
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $3.4K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$34.82
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.2%
- Current value
- $678.05
- Potential payout
- $3.37K
- Potential profit
- $2.69K
- Multiplier
- 4.96x
- User PnL
- -$1K
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 79.9%
- Current value
- $2.69K
- Potential payout
- $3.37K
- Potential profit
- $678.05
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $1K
Yes position
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $69.99
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.26K
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $3.3K
- Potential payout
- $3.31K
- Potential profit
- $9.93
- User PnL
- $158.7
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $3.03K
- Potential payout
- $3.07K
- Potential profit
- $35.27
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $241
Yes position
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $196.69
- Potential payout
- $3.03K
- Potential profit
- $2.83K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $154.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5K
Yes position
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7K
Yes position
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.22K
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.63K
Yes position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.64K
Yes position
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
Yes position
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
Yes position
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21K
No position
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
No position
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
No position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15K
Yes position
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
Nurnberg Ice Tigers position
DEL: Nurnberg Ice Tigers vs. Grizzlys Wolfsburg
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $998.37
Yes position
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $849.84
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $706.02
Yes position
Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $691.69
Yes position
Will the New Democrats win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?
Ends Feb 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $690.05
Yes position
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Ends Oct 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $670.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No 31% 200 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes 60% 817.02 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes 21% 1,382.52 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes 52.2% 3,284.79 shares
- Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 0.2% 9,291.6 shares
- Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 0.2% 9,957.04 shares
- Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 0.2% 2,222 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 0.4% 1,000 shares
- Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 0.1% 874.36 shares
- Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 0.1% 1,796.4 shares
- Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?Yes 98.9% 1,693.77 shares
- Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 99.6% 401.76 shares