Polymarket Trader

RolandChang

0x4d1bcbaeed22c6da173b1a356c3c6d2270081419

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $14.12K
Realized PnL: $21.58K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $4.38K
Potential payout: $4.49K
Potential profit: $109.94
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $217.67

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $549
Potential payout: $4.22K
Potential profit: $3.67K
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$342.6

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $1.99K
Potential payout: $2.06K
Potential profit: $77.4
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $98.1

No position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.94K
Potential profit: $1.94K
User PnL: -$1.85K

No position

Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $1.71K
Potential payout: $1.73K
Potential profit: $18.13
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $82.99

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.07K
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $62.38
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $101.24

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $968.51
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $31.5
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $5.5

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $990
Potential profit: $990
User PnL: -$763.1

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Header" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $947.55
Potential payout: $986
Potential profit: $38.45
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $14.14

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $122.24
Potential payout: $905.47
Potential profit: $783.23
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$204.39

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $755.37
Potential payout: $777.53
Potential profit: $22.16
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $18.37

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $149.62
Potential payout: $748.08
Potential profit: $598.46
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$532.92

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $457.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $42.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $7.5

Up position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$250

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $160
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $239.99
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $84

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $378.55
Potential payout: $393.09
Potential profit: $14.54
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.83

No position

Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $344.82
Potential payout: $347.42
Potential profit: $2.61
User PnL: $4.49

Yes position

Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220.78
Potential profit: $220.78
User PnL: -$24.07

No position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $214.06
Potential profit: $214.06
User PnL: -$44.15

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$137

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $199.99
User PnL: -$101

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $127.56
Potential payout: $186.21
Potential profit: $58.66
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $53.07

Yes position

Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $12.01
Potential payout: $152.03
Potential profit: $140.02
Multiplier: 12.66x
User PnL: -$1.81

Up position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$69

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.9%
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: $3.51K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.99K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29K

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.9%
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

AI Bubble Boom Parlay November

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.1%
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: $1.04K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $988

Yes position

GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $878.14

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $791.71

No position

GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $768.48

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $749.1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $703.81

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 7.2%
Multiplier: 13.99x
User PnL: $679.5

Yes position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $546.14

Yes position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $530.57

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $527.69

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 38.1%
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: $512.94

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $486

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $477.43

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $476.42

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $460

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $431.53

No position

GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $426.81

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No 90% 500 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

No 14% 30 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

No 14.6% 120.81 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

No 14.9% 235 shares
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?

No 98.4% 454.33 shares
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match?

Yes 94.8% 757.53 shares
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match?

Yes 95% 125 shares
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?

Yes 94.6% 886.1 shares
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match?

Yes 96% 321.44 shares
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match?

Yes 95% 65 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 85% 700.06 shares
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match?

Yes 94.9% 589.2 shares