Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.48K
- Potential profit
- $25.48K
- User PnL
- -$1.28K
Polymarket Trader
0x4D460023c512e346e989559423636A92Fc0Ea6BF-1758025742271
0x4d460023c512e346e989559423636a92fc0ea6bf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $681.07
- Realized PnL
- -$2.07K
- Win rate
- 28.6%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $681.07
- Potential payout
- $11.84K
- Potential profit
- $11.16K
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$93.92
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 8AM ET
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.2K
- Potential profit
- $10.2K
- User PnL
- -$102
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.34K
- Potential profit
- $5.34K
- User PnL
- -$110
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.34K
- Potential profit
- $2.34K
- User PnL
- -$117.1
Yes position
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.22K
- Potential profit
- $2.22K
- User PnL
- -$2.22
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.95K
- Potential profit
- $1.95K
- User PnL
- -$117.27
Yes position
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- User PnL
- -$150.49
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$100
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 12PM ET
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $604.66
- Potential profit
- $604.66
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $102.57
- Potential profit
- $102.57
- User PnL
- -$4
Up position
XRP Up or Down - September 16, 9AM ET
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
XRP Up or Down - September 16, 9AM ET
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156
Up position
XRP Up or Down - September 16, 8AM ET
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.85
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 10AM ET
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 3AM ET
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11AM ET
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$21.64
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$71.08
Yes position
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$106.92
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$116.89
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 10AM ET
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$166.85
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$194.67
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$212.97
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$251.89
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.09K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 7% 3,214.29 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 5.1% 4,623.48 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.7% 3,358.21 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.2% 5,272.27 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.5% 4,462.27 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.6% 6,967.21 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.5% 9,633.63 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 9.5% 2,271.5 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 9.1% 2,351.98 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 6.8% 5,779.19 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?Yes 1.9% 21,125.82 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?Yes 2% 11,856.48 shares