No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $416.37
- Potential payout
- $558.88
- Potential profit
- $142.51
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $62.68
Polymarket Trader
MarvelFan
0x4d7e5ceaa75658dcd7e37000a262fcb1db5cf846
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $416.37
- Realized PnL
- $3.53K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $516
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $462.26
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $321.25
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.01
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $135
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $128
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $92.49
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- $76
No position
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $72.93
Yes position
Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $47.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.2
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.25
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.95
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 29)
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.74
Yes position
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.33
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.8
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.12
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.03
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $10.84
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?No 63% 5.1 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?No 96% 1,600 shares
- Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes 77% 200 shares
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No 74% 100 shares
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No 66% 11.2 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?No 88% 1,300 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No 58% 190 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8AM ETUp 51% 192.94 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No 0.3% 3,999.99 shares
- US military draft authorized in 2026?No 92% 200.66 shares
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Yes 29.3% 305 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes 7% 802 shares