No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $1.64K
- Potential payout
- $1.77K
- Potential profit
- $132.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $132.75
Polymarket Trader
8899aa
0x4da7ad62eb3d23d3904b84bdc129a1c21d98bd09
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.22K
- Realized PnL
- $151.95
- Win rate
- 55.6%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 9
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $1.7K
- Potential payout
- $1.76K
- Potential profit
- $57.14
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $101.1
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $247.5
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$52.5
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $632.31
- Potential payout
- $923.08
- Potential profit
- $290.77
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $32.31
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $320.74
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.05
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.16
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $82.29
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.51
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$68.87
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$162.06
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$167.48
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$277.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 65% 923.08 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes 25.1% 2,000 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes 47% 1,532.41 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 20% 1,500 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes 95.1% 830.87 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes 51% 196.08 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?No 64.6% 1,141.41 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes 59.9% 1,336.34 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?No 73% 411.06 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes 72.9% 685.94 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes 69% 144.93 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes 98.9% 832.91 shares