Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $17.22
- Potential payout
- $21.4
- Potential profit
- $4.17
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $1.97
Polymarket Trader
0x4dc3...4702
0x4dc3abdf5035e9952d7efaa55934daa457d14702
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $40.1
- Realized PnL
- $55.22
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.3%
- Current value
- $7.14
- Potential payout
- $15.11
- Potential profit
- $7.97
- Multiplier
- 2.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $3.74
- Potential payout
- $5.38
- Potential profit
- $1.64
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.98
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $3.3
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.7
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Y
Yes position
Will "Raindance - Dave & Tems" be the song of the summer?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.91
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49%
- Current value
- $2.45
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.55
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?
Ends Nov 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.2%
- Current value
- $3.01
- Potential payout
- $4.48
- Potential profit
- $1.47
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $2.31
Yes position
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $3.97
- Potential profit
- $3.92
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
No position
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $1.85
- Potential payout
- $2.86
- Potential profit
- $1.02
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55%
- Current value
- $1.24
- Potential payout
- $2.25
- Potential profit
- $1.01
- Multiplier
- 1.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.85
No position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.35
No position
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.28
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.98
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.35
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $1.9
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08
Yes position
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.94
Yes position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.77
No position
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?Yes 40.2% 5 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 95% 5 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 96% 4.94 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 87% 5 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Yes 7.5% 0.21 shares
- No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?Yes 5% 0.05 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 65% 1.95 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 64% 4.05 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?No 11% 5 shares
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Yes 96.3% 0.71 shares
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Yes 96.3% 0.26 shares
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Yes 97.2% 0.03 shares