Polymarket Trader

0x4dF07aBB9317983Ac3D4c946284adC7c5f249edA-1730777712238

0x4df07abb9317983ac3d4c946284adc7c5f249eda

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.17K
Realized PnL: $4.85K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $2.28K
User PnL: -$2K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.84K
Potential profit: $1.84K
User PnL: -$1.5K

Yes position

Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.63K
Potential profit: $1.63K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.39K
Potential profit: $1.39K
User PnL: -$1K

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $684.93
Potential payout: $684.93
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $184.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 11AM ET

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $668.46
Potential profit: $668.46
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-19?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $641.53
Potential profit: $641.53
User PnL: -$500

No position

Will Chegg (CHGG) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $497.32
Potential profit: $497.32
User PnL: -$372.99

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $290.99
Potential profit: $290.99
User PnL: -$229.66

Yes position

Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $265.6
Potential payout: $265.6
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $65.6

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $110.44
Potential payout: $110.44
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $10.44

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $109.02
Potential payout: $109.02
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $9.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $585.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $583.03

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $371.02

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $352.94

Magic position

Warriors vs. Magic

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $310.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $283.38

No position

Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $197.8

Golden Knights position

Rangers vs. Golden Knights

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.85

No position

Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.83

New Zealand position

New Zealand ODI Series: New Zealand vs West Indies (Game 2)

Ends Nov 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.68

Central Michigan position

Central Michigan vs. Kent State Golden Flashes

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.67

Suns position

Suns vs. Trail Blazers

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.29

Heat position

Warriors vs. Heat

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $141.18

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.08

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Mavericks

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $134.78

Pistons position

Pistons vs. Hawks

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.8

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.57

Sharks position

Utah vs. Sharks

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.05

76ers position

76ers vs. Bucks

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.7

No position

Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.58

Panthers position

Devils vs. Panthers

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.49

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.56

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?

Yes 75.3% 265.6 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?

Yes 91.7% 109.02 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?

Yes 90.5% 110.44 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Yes 73% 684.93 shares
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes?

No 57.3% 1,149.42 shares
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes?

No 87% 1,149.43 shares
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour?

Yes 96.4% 1,502.89 shares
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour?

Yes 98% 1,502.9 shares
Pistons vs. Pacers

Pistons 79% 188 shares
Knicks vs. Nets

Knicks 87% 113.63 shares
Mavericks vs. Heat

Heat 74% 133.33 shares
Timberwolves vs. Kings

Timberwolves 78% 125 shares