Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $197.05
- Potential payout
- $858.59
- Potential profit
- $661.54
- Multiplier
- 4.36x
- User PnL
- $47.05
Polymarket Trader
NeoRenaissance
0x4df9e09ac7d0b658c32c60beb585fe17280dfa82
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $529.32
- Realized PnL
- -$335.29
- Win rate
- 35.3%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.6%
- Current value
- $65.94
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $559.06
- Multiplier
- 9.48x
- User PnL
- -$34.06
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $84.78
- Potential payout
- $137.85
- Potential profit
- $53.07
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$15.22
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $114.74
- Potential payout
- $128.21
- Potential profit
- $13.46
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $14.74
Yes position
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $46.07
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $25.36
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- -$3.93
Yes position
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.87
- Potential profit
- $51.87
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $20.74
- Potential payout
- $41.89
- Potential profit
- $21.16
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$4.26
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.88
Milwaukee Brewers position
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.86
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.71
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $28.52
Yes position
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.08
Lakers position
Cavaliers vs. Lakers
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.73
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.72
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$8.33
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.17
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$20.57
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$20.75
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$66.28
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$76.47
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$192.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes 48% 41.89 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.7% 26.56 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.1% 26.56 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.8% 53.13 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes 59.7% 83.78 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Yes 72.5% 137.85 shares
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?Yes 48.2% 51.87 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes 5.2% 10.46 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes 27.8% 29.79 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes 62.1% 40.26 shares
- Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 70% 71.43 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 19.8% 252.53 shares