No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$5.49K
Polymarket Trader
shingoWAKAYAMA
0x4e4203102fd7bde55ce1bcf9f1ef222e251949ed
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $77.45K
- Realized PnL
- $77.12K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.13K
- Potential profit
- $15.13K
- User PnL
- -$468.9
No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- User PnL
- -$6.37K
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $13.05K
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $1.95K
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $5.94K
No position
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.36K
- Potential profit
- $12.36K
- User PnL
- -$1.26K
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $1.38K
- Potential payout
- $12K
- Potential profit
- $10.62K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$3.63K
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $4.2K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $5.8K
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- $87.44
Yes position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $2.65K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $7.35K
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$3.89K
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $7.88K
- Potential payout
- $8.38K
- Potential profit
- $502.66
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.01K
No position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $7.56K
- Potential payout
- $8.36K
- Potential profit
- $794.05
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.39K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $3.56K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $4.44K
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$1.22K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $6.28K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $1.72K
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $1.37K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $7.59K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $412
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.72K
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.5K
- Potential profit
- $7.5K
- User PnL
- -$2.44K
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $5.64K
- Potential payout
- $6.97K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $348.27
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $1.17K
- Potential payout
- $6.5K
- Potential profit
- $5.33K
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$2.65K
No position
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $5.97K
- Potential payout
- $6.05K
- Potential profit
- $84.76
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $345.73
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $3
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.71K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $9
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.99K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.38K
No position
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.9%
- Current value
- $5.27K
- Potential payout
- $5.8K
- Potential profit
- $530.67
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $186.83
Yes position
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $205.38
- Potential payout
- $5.63K
- Potential profit
- $5.42K
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- $47.83
Yes position
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $282.2
- Potential payout
- $5.48K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- -$2.44K
Yes position
No one announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $4.74K
- Potential payout
- $5.13K
- Potential profit
- $384.68
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $621.33
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.04K
- Potential profit
- $5.04K
- User PnL
- -$2.73K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.68K
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.55K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.08K
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.29K
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.82K
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.77K
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.68K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.29K
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.09K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45K
Yes position
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $994.81
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?Yes 0.9% 561.2 shares
- Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?No 86.1% 3,000 shares
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?Yes 59.3% 290 shares
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?Yes 54.5% 290.56 shares
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?No 0.1% 3,000 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?Yes 68.5% 1,962.82 shares
- Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?No 90% 1,800 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No 71.7% 470.9 shares
- Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?No 88.5% 1,744 shares
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?No 75.9% 539 shares
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?No 31% 498 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?No 33.6% 2,500 shares