Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.33
- Potential payout
- $533.33
- Potential profit
- $532
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.67
Polymarket Trader
0x4e86...3fff
0x4e867c4d1d17c77df51ddb372dfb00c775033fff
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $78.3
- Realized PnL
- $131.95
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $6.04
- Potential payout
- $15.68
- Potential profit
- $9.64
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
No position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $5.96
- Potential payout
- $14.03
- Potential profit
- $8.07
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $7.92
- Potential payout
- $13.2
- Potential profit
- $5.28
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $7.92
Yes position
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $12.39
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$7.89
No position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $6.77
- Potential payout
- $11.01
- Potential profit
- $4.24
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.16
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $2.79
- Potential payout
- $10.52
- Potential profit
- $7.73
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $7.79
- Potential payout
- $10.25
- Potential profit
- $2.46
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $2.26
- Potential payout
- $10.25
- Potential profit
- $8
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.45
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $1.55
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $2.3
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.7
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- $2.3
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $8.91
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$3.42
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $4.84
- Potential payout
- $7.87
- Potential profit
- $3.03
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $4.84
No position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 45%
- Current value
- $3.53
- Potential payout
- $7.85
- Potential profit
- $4.32
- Multiplier
- 2.22x
- User PnL
- $3.53
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $3.3
- Potential payout
- $7.6
- Potential profit
- $4.29
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $3.3
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $0.71
- Potential payout
- $7.5
- Potential profit
- $6.79
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Yes position
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $6.64
- Potential payout
- $6.75
- Potential profit
- $0.11
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.65
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $5.22
- Potential payout
- $6.49
- Potential profit
- $1.27
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $5.37
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.63
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.93
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 37%
- Current value
- $2.22
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $3.78
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- $2.22
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $1.54
- Potential payout
- $3.05
- Potential profit
- $1.51
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $1.54
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.09
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.25
No position
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Memphis Roundtable?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.85
Down position
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.84
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.56
Up position
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.86
Up position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 22?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.23
Down position
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.11
Yes position
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1
No position
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.07
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.99
No position
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.92
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.75
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.66
No position
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.65
Down position
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.63
Yes position
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.27
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.73
No position
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
No position
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56
Yes position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.09
No position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.69
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 29% 6 shares
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes 42% 7.6 shares
- Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes 48% 9.25 shares
- Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 15 2026?No 78% 2.03 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 27% 5.52 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?No 48% 11.25 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes 56% 3.05 shares
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes 20% 10 shares
- Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes 32% 11.5 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?No 78% 6 shares
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No 47.4% 7.85 shares
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes 21% 10 shares