No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.47K
- Potential profit
- $2.47K
- User PnL
- -$2.24K
Polymarket Trader
jam516
0x4e8deac8c35ff5321fe8a0a9fb6dfc4b0bbf3b13
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.1K
- Realized PnL
- $5.48K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 23
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $1.29K
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $255.75
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $82.93
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $990.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $9.5
- User PnL
- $280.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $783.04
- Potential payout
- $865.24
- Potential profit
- $82.2
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $66.3
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.2%
- Current value
- $91.11
- Potential payout
- $749.9
- Potential profit
- $658.78
- Multiplier
- 8.23x
- User PnL
- -$53.89
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.3%
- Current value
- $362.07
- Potential payout
- $445.63
- Potential profit
- $83.56
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $38.89
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $430.2
- Potential profit
- $430.2
- User PnL
- -$400
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $279.9
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $20.1
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $63.9
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $236.16
- Potential profit
- $236.16
- User PnL
- -$11.57
Yes position
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $136.25
- Potential profit
- $136.25
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.26
- Potential payout
- $102.21
- Potential profit
- $101.95
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$47.7
Yes position
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $88
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $12
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $40
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $95.59
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $4.4
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $27.6
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $68.15
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $1.86
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $3.04
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $42.9
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $17.1
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $18.9
Yes position
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $36.87
- Potential profit
- $36.87
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $27.78
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $23.81
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.95
- Potential profit
- $16.95
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.63
- Potential profit
- $15.63
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.93
- Potential profit
- $14.93
- User PnL
- -$10
Y
Yes position
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $12.5
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.35
- Potential profit
- $5.35
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $930
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $469.14
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $342.76
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $314.07
Yes position
Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29?
Ends Nov 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $313.53
Yes position
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $274.85
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $274.49
Weili position
Weili vs. Suarez
Ends Feb 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $260
No position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.25
No position
Yoon released from custody before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.27
No position
OpenSea token announcement in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.47
Yes position
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?
Ends Dec 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.39
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $161.63
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.43
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.03
No position
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.36
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.64
Yes position
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.82
No position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99.4
No position
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.59
No position
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?
Ends Jan 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.97
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.92
100k position
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.48
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 11.1% 90 shares
- Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?Yes 8% 12.5 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 93% 14.9 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 81% 693.9 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 82% 140.6 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 85% 35.27 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 84.7% 200 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 72% 243.95 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 72.6% 100 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 72.5% 45.63 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 72.5% 100 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 72.5% 200 shares