Polymarket Trader

Yangtaolalala

0x4f077744c1ecea24954a10847821ef4632318aef

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.41K
Realized PnL: $7.47K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.3K
User PnL: -$19

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $409.5
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $490.5
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $31.5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $646.71
Potential payout: $747.64
Potential profit: $100.93
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$11.21

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $60.41
Potential payout: $514.09
Potential profit: $453.68
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $16.19

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $94.56
Potential payout: $512.52
Potential profit: $417.96
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $26.09
Potential payout: $497
Potential profit: $470.91
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: -$30.93

Yes position

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $42.44
Potential payout: $326.48
Potential profit: $284.04
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $4.32

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $28.02
Potential payout: $205.3
Potential profit: $177.28
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $37.01
Potential payout: $100.02
Potential profit: $63.01
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: $17.99

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.3
Multiplier: 21.28x
User PnL: -$25.3

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $56
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $44
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: $16

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.25
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$6.25

Yes position

Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $44.3
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$8.85

Yes position

Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.06
Multiplier: 10.58x
User PnL: $0.44

Djokovic position

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $8.33
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $737.53

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $685.16

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $516.78

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $391.68

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $356.44

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $343.49

No position

US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $277.43

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $265.94

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $250.53

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.59

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200.77

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.44

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.23

No position

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.18

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.98

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.81

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173.18

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.3

No position

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.07

No position

US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.99

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153

No position

US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.33

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.25

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 8% 600 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 48% 2,149.81 shares
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?

Yes 22% 45.45 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 13.5% 50 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 13.3% 102.67 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.5% 307.51 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.5% 205.01 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 8.6% 514.09 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 14.5% 102.63 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 31% 100 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 6% 200 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 1% 100 shares