awei02

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $2.13K
Potential payout: $2.2K
Potential profit: $64.82
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $184.66

No position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $1.86K
Potential payout: $2.04K
Potential profit: $173.01
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $100.46

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $33
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.97K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$4.99

No position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $1.59K
Potential payout: $1.73K
Potential profit: $138.64
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $145.68

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.31K
Potential payout: $1.44K
Potential profit: $137.13
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $88.35

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $973.04
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $70.43
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $18.04

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $596.31
Potential payout: $740.76
Potential profit: $144.45
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$3.79

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $58.94
Potential payout: $458.72
Potential profit: $399.77
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $8.95

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $51.12
Potential payout: $435.05
Potential profit: $383.93
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $11.1

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $278.34
Potential payout: $394.81
Potential profit: $116.47
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $28.34

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $49.97
Potential payout: $366.06
Potential profit: $316.09
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$10.03

No position

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $315.92
Potential payout: $317.03
Potential profit: $1.11
User PnL: $15.92

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $57.3
Potential payout: $310.56
Potential profit: $253.26
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $7.3

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $242.56
Potential payout: $243.9
Potential profit: $1.34
User PnL: $42.56

No position

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.6%
Current value: $208.68
Potential payout: $233.03
Potential profit: $24.35
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $8.68

Yes position

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $227.61
Potential profit: $227.61
User PnL: -$10

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $122.86
Potential payout: $217.49
Potential profit: $94.63
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $22.86

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $36.99
Potential payout: $180.43
Potential profit: $143.45
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$3.01

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $178.5
Potential payout: $179.49
Potential profit: $0.99
User PnL: $28.5

Yes position

Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 21.2%
Current value: $28.89
Potential payout: $136.61
Potential profit: $107.71
Multiplier: 4.73x
User PnL: $18.89

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $103.33
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $30
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $3.33

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$1

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $109.15
Potential payout: $121.95
Potential profit: $12.8
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $9.15

Yes position

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $34.04
Potential payout: $115.38
Potential profit: $81.35
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $4.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.25

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $214.59

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.49

No position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.22

Seahawks position

Seahawks vs. Patriots

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.86

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.86

Team Yandex position

Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO3)

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.45

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.03

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.87

Yes position

Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.81

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.38

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.13

Seahawks position

Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.17

No position

Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.07

Seahawks position

Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.04

Yes position

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.22

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.87

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.66

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on October 4?

Ends Oct 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.58

No position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.35

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.32

No position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?