Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.3%
- Current value
- $662.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.34K
- Multiplier
- 7.55x
- User PnL
- -$162.5
Polymarket Trader
turtle123
@Niky_Alpha
0x4fff3c11a5d9b77822e01792f933cdb28557be78
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $15.69K
- Realized PnL
- $29.4K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $3.53K
- Potential payout
- $4.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $1.32K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $2.63K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $375
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $2K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- $45.98
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $1.88K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $117
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $57
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $955.49
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $344.5
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $125.84
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.02K
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.56
- User PnL
- $56.43
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $6.5
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.1%
- Current value
- $100.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $899.5
- Multiplier
- 9.95x
- User PnL
- -$14.5
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Current value
- $60.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $939.5
- Multiplier
- 16.53x
- User PnL
- -$17.5
No position
Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $568.95
- Potential payout
- $569.8
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- User PnL
- $7.69
Yes position
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $237
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $63
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $247.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $52.5
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $37.5
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.6%
- Current value
- $28.43
- Potential payout
- $269.43
- Potential profit
- $241.01
- Multiplier
- 9.48x
- User PnL
- $11.18
Y
Yes position
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.7%
- Current value
- $68.45
- Potential payout
- $256.37
- Potential profit
- $187.92
- Multiplier
- 3.75x
- User PnL
- -$126.31
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $192.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $7.7
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $14.3
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $112.18
- Potential payout
- $168.69
- Potential profit
- $56.51
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $29.52
No position
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $131.21
- Potential payout
- $136.75
- Potential profit
- $5.54
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.67
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $109.73
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$66.88
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $100.2
- Potential payout
- $109.51
- Potential profit
- $9.31
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.64
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.2%
- Current value
- $84.21
- Potential payout
- $100.01
- Potential profit
- $15.8
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $13.7
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $86
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$0
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $62.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $37.5
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$6.5
Yes position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $9.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $90.5
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.07K
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $3.01K
No position
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday?
Ends Jan 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23K
No position
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year?
Ends Dec 12, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.81K
Yes position
Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47K
Yes position
Israel announces ceasefire by January 17?
Ends Jan 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
No position
Will Laura Loomer get her bluecheck back by Friday?
Ends Jan 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
No position
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week?
Ends Jan 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
Yes position
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $893.4
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
Ends May 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $814.44
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $798.99
No position
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $759.92
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $746.48
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $715.93
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?
Ends Dec 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $714.56
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $683.76
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $658.96
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $648.38
No position
Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $642.55
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?Yes 7.8% 20 shares
- Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250?Yes 8.5% 20 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 65% 300 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 83.7% 1,000 shares
- Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250?Yes 5% 30 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 45% 5,096 shares
- Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250?Yes 72% 29.99 shares
- Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250?Yes 76% 562.73 shares
- Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?Yes 84% 300 shares
- Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250?No 73.3% 34 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 12% 5.27 shares
- Will Trump say "UFC" this week?Yes 81% 4.02 shares