Sunshine963

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.7K
Potential payout: $2.7K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $108

Yes position

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $22.13
Potential payout: $2.33K
Potential profit: $2.31K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $7.03

Yes position

Will Como win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $925
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $75
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $52.65
Potential payout: $389.97
Potential profit: $337.33
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$8.55

Yes position

Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Ends Dec 31, 2028

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $32.25
Potential payout: $379.4
Potential profit: $347.15
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$8.16

No position

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.7%
Current value: $280.94
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $19.05
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $19.95

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $299.86
Potential profit: $299.71
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$65.52

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $138.98
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $61.02
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $69.98

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.1%
Current value: $46.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $153.9
Multiplier: 4.34x
User PnL: -$4.1

No position

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $89.43
Potential payout: $101.62
Potential profit: $12.19
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $7.11

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $89
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $11
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $5

No position

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $95.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $4.65
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.99
Potential profit: $57.99
User PnL: -$30.16

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $9.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $40.25
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $12.6
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $27.4
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $37
Potential payout: $37
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $6.66

No position

Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $24.23
Potential payout: $35.9
Potential profit: $11.67
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $2.69

No position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $32.98
Potential payout: $33
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $2.85

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $32
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.6

No position

Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $29.99
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $14.69

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $30
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $8.43

Yes position

Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Ends Dec 31, 2028

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $12.12
Potential profit: $10.12
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.4K

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401.95

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $265

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $239.76

Yes position

Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $211.23

Yes position

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $197.3

No position

Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $98.5

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85

No position

Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.74

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.5

No position

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.79

No position

Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.6

No position

Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

No position

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

No position

Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

No position

Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.42

No position

Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.31

No position

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.24

No position

Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.97

No position

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31?