Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $132
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $18
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2
Polymarket Trader
Esmememeralda
0x5037a31becf732f54d7cde7ab2760f0a844f0307
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $673.52
- Realized PnL
- $1.11K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $95.24
- Potential payout
- $149.99
- Potential profit
- $54.75
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$9.49
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $138.36
- Potential payout
- $139.83
- Potential profit
- $1.47
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $4.93
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $121.23
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $8.78
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $109
- Potential profit
- $109
- User PnL
- -$90.08
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $3.38
- Potential payout
- $101.04
- Potential profit
- $97.66
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$38.28
No position
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $55.2
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $4.8
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $4.14
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $28.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $21.76
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $44.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $5.25
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.85
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $36.21
- Potential payout
- $45.83
- Potential profit
- $9.63
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $2.33
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$15.26
No position
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $9.89
- Potential payout
- $9.96
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- User PnL
- $0.79
No position
China coup attempt before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $9.01
- Potential payout
- $9.35
- Potential profit
- $0.34
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.38
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
TikTok sale announced by September 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.84
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.53
Yes position
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.13
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.59
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.3
No position
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.72
No position
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.5
Yes position
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.6
No position
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.14
No position
TikTok sale announced before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.07
No position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $44.2
No position
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.79
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.64
Yes position
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.84
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.29
Yes position
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.9
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.61
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.4
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.73
No position
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.63
No position
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.09
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.08
No position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.7
Yes position
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 3.5% 28.96 shares
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Yes 99.8% 100.2 shares
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Yes 99.7% 100.3 shares
- Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?No 38% 100 shares
- Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?No 77% 100 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 86% 50 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 86% 50 shares
- Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?No 95% 100 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 93.1% 20 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 93.1% 40 shares
- Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?No 90% 100 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes 87% 20 shares